Posts Tagged ‘stock picking’

Is Investing in the Stock Market Gambling? An Answer from Tortoise and Hare

Posted By damien on August 30th, 2010

Stock Market Gambling

My first encounter with someone trying to time the stock market occurred when I was nine years old, at church, of all places. I was sitting in the foyer, waiting for my parents to finish socializing so that I could go home and jump on the trampoline.

While waiting as patiently as a nine-year-old could, I (naturally) eavesdropped on the conversation of two “old” guys standing next to me. (Old, when one is a child, is anyone over 30.) One guy was complaining to the other about his recent losses:

…so it climbs to $3.63 per share, and I think, “This is definitely the top!” So I sell all my shares.

By the end of the day, it closed at $3.96! If I’d only waited 4 more hours, I would have made $12,000 more…

The other guy just shrugged his shoulders and sighed, as if saying, “Well, that’s just how investing in the stock market goes…”

I shook my head in amazement that such fortunes could be made and lost so quickly. It seemed the Gods of the market were more fickle than my infant sister.

But I didn’t philosophize on the stock market for long, there was a 10-foot wide trampoline waiting at home for me.

Back to the Future

As I aged and thought more about that experience, I started to believe that stock market investing was nothing more than an elegant form of gambling. That the guys (and girls) who made money were the ones lucky enough to guess when to buy low and sell high. And the losers were the suckers on the other end.

But was I right?

Is investing in the stock market gambling?

The Answer

The answer, I would submit, is more nuanced than a simple yes or no. I believe that it is possible to invest in good businesses and it’s also possible to speculate (gamble) on stocks.

Let me show you the difference. There are two ways to determine whether you are gambling or investing: (1) time horizon and  (2) chosen instruments.

Let’s look at both.

You Gotta Know When to Hold ‘Em

The first distinction between gambling and investing has to do with how long you hold on to the stocks you buy–what the industry calls your “investment horizon”. The gambler (hare) will buy and sell stocks hourly, daily or weekly depending on the short-term rise or fall of the price of the stock.

The gambler cares not about the underlying company whose stock he buys and sells, only that the price goes up or down.

The investor (tortoise), on the other hand, is in it for the long haul. She chooses companies (or groups of companies) that she believes in and buys a part of that company for the future.

She is optimistic about the long-term outlook for the market/economy that she invests in and ignores the day-to-day fluctuations in prices.

In short, the gambler buys and sells stocks based on short-term performance. The investor buys part of a company based on its long-term prospects for growth.

Wrath of the Alphabet Soup

Another way to distinguish between stock investing and gambling is by the instruments one buys.

The gambler loves the latest and greatest newfangled type of exotic investment. MBSs, options, futures…the gambler (hare) loves to bet on stock prices.

Options are bets that the price of a stock will rise or fall to a certain price at a certain date. Futures are contracts to buy or sell an asset in the future at a price specified today. Betting on prices–a clear winner and loser.

MBSs (mortgage-backed securities) and its cousins form the alphabet soup of investment inventions too complicated for most people and even self-proclaimed financial experts to understand.

The investor takes a much simpler route: she buys stocks and stock (mutual) funds. Simple and easy to comprehend. She purchases a part of a company (or many companies) and her success rises or falls with the performance of that company and the overall market.

For the investor to win, there does not have to be a loser.

By now, you should know my investing philosophy. Be an investor (tortoise) not a gambler (hare). And pick up my free Minimalist Guide to Investing to learn how to start investing for your future.

Why Can’t Top Stock Pickers Predict the Future?

Posted By damien on February 23rd, 2010

Crystal Ball Gazer

As explained before, I do not place unblinking trust in any sort of “expert”.  Frankly, I don’t think most experts deserve the credence or deference we are wont to give them.  In today’s internet-based world, many self-proclaimed experts are better at self-promotion than at giving expert advice.

When it comes to incompetent experts, the realm of stock picking is no exception. Keeping with the theme that index funds are good and actively managed funds are bad, let’s look at three reasons why stock pickers have such a hard time picking stocks that will outperform indexes.

Random Events

Let’s face it, the future is just too murky to predict.  Who could have seen the most recent stock bubble coming?  Virtually none of the professional stock pickers did.  Jim Cramer from CNBC’s Mad Money certainly didn’t.  The day before Bear Stearns went under, he was telling people to most definitely not sell their stock; that Bear Stearns was A-OK. The next day Bear Stearns went belly up.

There are just too many random variables that go into the price of a company’s stock: natural disasters, defects in a product, new discoveries, terrorist attacks, the list of variables outside of the company’s control goes on and on.  A popular saying among investors is that stock market predictors exist so that meteorologists (weather predictors) can feel good about themselves.

Falsified Financial Statements

A firm’s income statement may be likened to a bikini—what it reveals is interesting but what it conceals is vital.

–Burton Malkiel

One way today’s fund managers decide which stocks to buy is through a process called Fundamental Analysis.  It pretty much means they look at companies’ financial statements (balance sheet, income statement, etc.) to determine if the stock is undervalued or overvalued.  The problem with this approach is the rise in “creative” accounting procedures.  Accountants are very good at manipulating reports to make everything look rosy.

Here is just one example of creative accounting, taken from A Random Walk Down Wall Street:

Eastman Kodak availed itself of “big bash” accounting write-offs.  Kodak took six “extraordinary” charges during the 1990s totaling $4.5 billion, equal to all the company’s profits over the preceding eight years.  By charging off years of expenses at once, the company could make future earnings look that much better.  It’s like an individual making several years of mortgage payments in advance and then claiming that his income has grown.

Conflicts of Interest

Perhaps the biggest reason stock pickers are unable to accurately predict the future is the inherent conflict of interest that exists in the big brokerage houses.  Individual investors like you and me are the small fries in the investment arena.  For stock analysts, the real money is to be made from investment banks.  Investment banks move billions of dollars every month, so stock analysts want to keep them happy.

One indicator of how much analysts want to keep the big guys happy is in their reluctance to give advice which paints the bug guys’ stock in a bad light.  The analyst is torn: he knows he should tell you to sell the lame stock, but his brokerage house has a relationship with that company and it will hurt their relationship if even hints that their stock is stinky.

Here’s a famous example, once again from A Random Walk Down Wall Street:

In one celebrated incident, an analyst who had the chutzpah to recommend that Trump’s Taj Mahal bonds should be sold because they were unlikely to pay their interest was summarily fired by his firm after threats of legal retaliation from “The Donald” himself. (Later, the bonds did default.)

Trust No One…

When it comes to predicting the future, no one has a harder time than stock fund managers.  Even your local weatherman (or woman) gets it right more often.  There are just too many variables: random events, creative accounting, and conflicts of interest.  So what is an investor like you or me to do?  Choose index funds!

How to Invest in Stocks: Investment Tools

Posted By damien on February 18th, 2010

In the previous post, we looked at my investment philosophy, meaning the principles I use when choosing what to invest in.  Since I am investing for the long-term (retirement) I want stock funds that are easy to understand, have a slow and steady track record, and have minimal fees.

Using these criteria, let’s look at the actual stock funds I invest in and recommend.  In a nutshell, index funds are good and actively managed funds are bad.

What to Invest In

When it comes to the three principles outlined, index funds can’t be beat.  Before explaining how they meet the criteria, let’s talk about what index funds actually are.

A stock index is a listing of the largest companies in the various stock markets, ranked by market capitalization.  The most well known index is the S&P 500, a listing of the 500 largest stocks on the New York Stock Exchange.  These 500 companies account for about 75-80% of all US common stocks.

An index fund is a grouping of stocks that follows one of the indexes (such as the S&P 500).  They invest in stocks proportional to the amount of each company’s stock in the market.  So an index fund would have more of GE’s stock than, say, Apple’s.  If you were to invest in an S&P 500 fund, you would own a little stock of all 500 of the largest companies in the US market.

Index Funds vs. Our Philosophy

So how do index funds stand up to our investing philosophy? First of all, they are simple to understand: I just explained one to you in the preceding two paragraphs.  You are investing in a large group of common stocks.  No alphabet soup here.

Secondly, index funds have the least volatile returns available (of common stock).  In fact, this is where index funds really shine.  Since they are so diversified (across hundreds or thousands of companies), when measuring the return of an index fund, you need only be concerned with how the overall stock market is performing.  The performance of any one company is so small (some even negligible) in the aggregate.  This leads to smoother, more consistent returns.

Last of all, let’s consider fees.  Once again, index funds take the cake.  Since index funds simply track an index, there is no advanced analysis needed when picking stocks to include.  Index fund fees are rock-bottom.

What to Avoid

Now that we know what to invest in, let’s look at what to avoid.  As I said in the beginning of this post, actively managed funds are bad.  An actively managed fund means that some smart person or complex computer software is picking the stocks to include in their funds.  Active managers look at financial statements, stock charts, and Wall Street gossip to help them choose stocks.  In future posts, I will go into detail about the methods that are used, and how ineffective they are for our purposes.

Managed Funds vs. Our Philosophy

How do actively managed funds hold up to our three criteria?  Oftentimes, fund managers will invest in all sorts of tools, regardless of our understanding.  The attitude here is “trust me, I’m a professional”.  Most active managers are buying and selling stocks so often that even if you did figure out all the tools you were putting your money into, a month later it would have changed.

Historically, actively managed funds, in the long run, never outperform index funds.  For stretches of 5- 10- or occasionally 15-year periods, actively managed funds have returned more than comparative indexes.  But in the long-run, active managers have not outperformed index funds.  In fact, many managed funds, following the concept of mean reversion, after a period of outperforming the index go on to underperform.  For a more detailed explanation of this argument, I refer the reader to The Four Pillars of Investing or A Random Walk Down Wall Street.

Actively managed funds are the main culprits when it comes to high and hidden fees.  The reasoning goes that if a smart person or sophisticated computer algorithm is picking your stocks, you should pay them more for their efforts.  Managed funds came up with wrap accounts, 12b-1 charges, and a plethora of ways to take your money whenever you buy, sell, look at or think about (not yet, but they’re working on it) stocks.  Here’s the real kicker with managed funds and fees: Any higher return you may receive from them gets eaten up by the higher fees they charge.

Recap

Let’s go over what we’ve talked about today:  Since I am investing for the long-term, I look for funds that are easy to understand, have a steady track record, and low fees.  Index funds fill all of these requirements, so we love them.  Actively managed funds (ex: mutual funds) fail on all three and are to be avoided.  Now that we have laid the groundwork for our investment philosophy, we can zoom in and look at specific aspects of investing for retirement.

How to Invest in Stocks: My Investment Philosophy

Posted By damien on February 16th, 2010

my investment philosophyWhile working on new posts this three-day weekend I realized that I have chosen all sorts of nuts-and-bolts investing topics without yet discussing my overall investment philosophy and approach.  IPO’s, asset allocation, stock picking, these are all topics that I can’t write about without first providing an investment philosophy foundation.

What I invest in, what I avoid, and why I do it will be the subject of this post and the next.  Then we can discuss investing practices and tactics; after theory comes practical application.  Let’s talk about the principles and factors I consider when choosing what to invest in.

No Alphabet Soup

I want an investment that I can understand.  This means I avoid exotic investment tools cooked up by fancy stock brokers.  Options, futures, MBSs, and other members of the alphabet soup; these are all investment tools that my Business School professors tried to explain to me, but I never really understood.  It seems that the more complicated an investment tool becomes, the easier it is for the stock broker to include fees without me noticing.

The recent real estate bubble is a good example of exotic investment tools gone haywire.  Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) lose most of their value and Credit Default Swaps (CDS) can’t cover them.  We all lose lots of money and few people understand why.  Perhaps you understand these exotic investments, but a tool I don’t understand is one I can’t use or recommend.

Slow and Steady Wins the Race

Since I am investing for the long-term (more than 20 years) I want an investment that is tried and true, with a track record of steady performance.  This means I avoid the “hot tips” given by stock pickers.  Any time I come across articles such as “Top 10 Stocks for the New Year” or the like, I ignore them.

Investing magazines have to sell, so they often put these hot stock tips on the covers, with headlines such as “Top (insert number) Stocks to Watch for (insert year or sector)”.  Some professional investors call this type of drivel “investment pornography” meaning it looks good but just leaves you (and your wallet) feeling empty.  Tips like these may lead to short term gains, but I want to smooth out the ups and downs for a more steady return.

You Get What You Don’t Pay For

Fees over the long term can kill your investment return.  Financial services (stock brokers) compete very handily with phone service providers as kings of hidden fees.  When you step into the world of investing, fees are expertly camouflaged to look like anything but fees. A fee by any other name still stinks.  Front-end loads, back-end loads, wrap accounts, 12b-1 charges…enough to make your head spin.

Which is exactly what your stock broker wants to do, so he can make you just that: broker.  When it comes to investing, you cannot control your return (the stock market is inherently volatile) but you can control your costs by choosing wise investments.  And among investment tools (mutual and index funds), there is a wide spectrum of fees and charges.

Where Do We Go From Here?

So there is a brief summary of my investment philosophy: tools (funds) that are easy to understand, grow slow and steady, and have the lowest fees possible.  Using these principles, in the next post we will consider what to invest in and what to avoid.

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